BNP recommends shorting the euro-krone exchange rate, targeting a drop to 9.25. The krone strengthened Friday to 9.5554 per euro, rallying for a third straight week.
Higher oil prices would be a double-positive for the Canadian dollar, fueling both export growth and a potentially more hawkish path for monetary policy amid quickening inflation, according to Rickard. She noted that the prospect of loonie gains has increased.
Still, she expects the Canadian dollar to remained confined in a range around C$1.28 versus the greenback amid risks from the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Bank of Canada may also seek to dial back the pace of rate hikes should the loonie strengthen past C$1.25, she wrote. The Canadian currency ended last week at 1.2885 per U.S. dollar.
The greenback’s negative correlation with oil is also weakening, according to a separate note from BNP, dampening the prospect of a sustained loonie rally versus the U.S. currency on the back of higher crude prices.